Analyze the [historical event/period] and construct three plausible counterfactual scenarios based on changing one key decision factor. For each scenario, explain: 1) The historical precedent and context for the actual decision; 2) The cascading effects that would have resulted from the alternative; 3) Short-term and long-term impacts; 4) The probability of each alternative outcome based on contemporaneous evidence; 5) How historians might evaluate these different outcomes. Base your analysis on primary source documentation and multiple historical perspectives.