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Pearl Causal Hierarchy

Theoretical framework organizing causal inference into three levels: association (observation), intervention (action), and counterfactual (hypothetical reasoning), each requiring stronger assumptions.

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Structural Causal Model (SCM)

Mathematical formalization combining structural equations, exogenous variables, and probabilistic assumptions to describe the causal mechanisms generating observed data.

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Causal Bayesian Network

Bayesian network interpreted causally where edges represent direct causal relationships, allowing calculation of intervention effects and answering counterfactual questions.

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Confounding Variable

Variable simultaneously influencing the cause and effect under study, creating a spurious association that must be controlled to isolate the true causal effect.

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Counterfactual

Hypothetical question about what would have happened if a different decision had been made, requiring a causal model to estimate unobserved alternative outcomes.

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Causal Effect

Change in a variable's distribution resulting from an intervention on another variable, distinct from the simple correlational association observed in the data.

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Markov Blanket

Minimal set of variables making a variable conditionally independent of all other variables in the graph, composed of its parents, children, and co-parents.

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Faithfulness Assumption

Assumption stating that all conditional independencies in the data derive from the causal graph structure, without accidental parameter cancellations.

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Adjustment Set

Set of variables that can block all backdoor paths between treatment and outcome, satisfying the conditions for unbiased causal estimation.

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