Detail the trilemma presented by Nick Bostrom in the Simulation Argument: (1) humanity will go extinct before reaching a post-human stage, (2) post-human civilizations will have no interest in running simulations, or (3) we are almost certainly living in a simulation. Analyze the mathematical or logical basis for assigning probabilities to each of these three disjuncts. Discuss the counter-arguments regarding the computational complexity required to simulate consciousness and the physical constraints of the universe.