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Begriffe
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Return distribution

Complete probabilistic representation of the sum of discounted future rewards, capturing all possible scenarios rather than a single expected value.

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Quantile distribution

Approach that directly models the quantiles of the return distribution to capture the variability and distribution tails of rewards.

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Conditional value at risk

Robust risk measure calculating the expected value of returns in the lower tail of the distribution, beyond a specified quantile.

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Implicit distribution

Distributional representation learned indirectly without explicit parameters, often through generative neural networks or samplers.

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Return variance

Dispersion measure quantifying the mean square deviation of returns from their expectation, a key indicator of risk in decisions.

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Policy entropy

Uncertainty measure on the agent's actions, used to explore the state-action space and quantify behavioral uncertainty.

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Confidence bound

Statistical intervals guaranteeing with a predefined probability that the true value lies within the estimated range, essential for safe exploration.

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Cramer distribution

Family of flexible distributions allowing modeling of skewness and heavy tails in returns, beyond Gaussian assumptions.

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Kernel estimation

Non-parametric method for estimating the probability density of returns using kernel functions to smooth empirical observations.

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Uncertainty propagation

Process of propagating uncertainty through successive steps of reinforcement learning, from observations to final decisions.

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Variational approximation

Optimization method approximating complex distributions by simpler families, minimizing divergence between distributions.

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Mixture distribution

Weighted combination of several base distributions, allowing to capture multimodal behaviors in expected returns.

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Cumulative distribution function

Function F(x) giving the probability that the return is less than or equal to x, completely characterizing the distribution of returns.

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Bias-variance tradeoff

Fundamental dilemma between model complexity (high variance, low bias) and its simplicity (low variance, high bias) in distributional estimation.

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